My latest article for Seeking Alpha forecasts Nike, Inc.’s earnings and determines its intrinsic value.
- Nike is a strong brand showing consistent revenue growth and excellent financial health.
- Nike’s revenue and earnings outlook for the next 5 years shows a continued ability to generate superior growth and dominate the industry.
- An estimated intrinsic value for shares of Nike based on best- and worst-case scenarios for the company, industry, and economy.
In analyzing stock valuations, people often use the price-to-earnings ratio as a shortcut. The problem is, it is just that a shortcut. It is the stock price divided by the trailing 12 months’ earnings per share. It is a simple measurement of past performance in a complex system that cannot be reduced to one number. P/E is a screening tool at best. It does not tell us enough about the most important factors of stock ownership: future earnings and cash flows.
Nike (NKE) has a P/E ratio of around 65, so investors are currently paying 65 times the last 12 months’ earnings per share to buy the stock. If the last 12 months’ earnings per share were to continue indefinitely, it would take 65 years to make your money back. So, initially, Nike looks extremely expensive. Thankfully, the appropriate price of a stock is based on a lot more than current EPS. Let’s conduct a more detailed assessment of Nike’s current earnings and project its future earnings to get a more accurate assessment of Nike’s intrinsic value. Continue reading…
Microsoft (MSFT) is one of the leading companies in the technology sector. The media and the President may obsess over Amazon (AMZN), investors may follow Warren Buffett into Apple (AAPL), and the average Joe may spend half his day on Google (GOOG/GOOGL), Netflix (NFLX), and Facebook (FB), but Microsoft has been quietly expanding its empire far beyond its traditional PC business. It has everything from a popular video game system to a 500 million-member social network to commercial software and cloud services. Those products are generating growth and income for the company’s shareholders. Here are three reasons they are doing this so well. Continue reading “3 Reasons Microsoft Is a Great Company”
As an advocate for economics education, I get upset when I hear bogus economics claims being made in politics and the media. When this happens, consumers are fooled into spending irresponsibly. Voters are fooled into supporting policies detrimental to the economy. This has been on my mind lately as President Trump doesn’t let a day go by without taking credit for how well the U.S. stock market is doing. Continue reading “Does Trump Deserve Credit for the Stock Market?”
My latest article on Seeking Alpha explains how specialty pharmacy could be Amazon’s next target for industry disruption:
In specialty pharma, prices are high, revenues are rising, and customer service is lacking. Disruption of this industry isn’t just available, it is necessary. It is a perfect target for Amazon.
Read the rest here.
In my latest article for Seeking Alpha, I look at how two companies handled industry disruption between 2000-2010 and analyze whether GameStop (GME) meets the profile of a survivor. This was a fun article to research, as Blockbuster was a comically mismanaged company, and one of its competitors, Family Video, remains a model for resilience to both disruption and recession.
David Abrams sums up Security Analysis the best in his introduction to Part VII of the 6th edition, where he calls it “the value investors’ equivalent to Deuteronomy” . SA is an extremely thorough explanation of how to evaluate stocks and bonds, primarily focusing on a company’s income statement and balance sheet. It is not an ideal starting point for young investors, but it is essential reading for any serious investor.
Graham and Dodd discuss the philosophy of value investing eloquently. They provide detailed analysis of dozens of companies’ finance statements to support their arguments about how investors should analyze securities. It is an excellent reality check for anyone who thinks he knows a thing or two about investing.
The examples given by Graham and Dodd are a bit dated (1930s), but most of the principles are still relevant today. The organization of the book is a bit awkward, but I don’t presume that I could organize such a massive quantity and variety of material any better.
It took me a long time to get through this, and I will probably explore many parts of it again over the next few years. It is a valuable addition to any business library and a resource that you can use for a lifetime of investing.
An app that let’s you quickly and easily trade stocks with no transaction fees? It sounds too good to be true. There has to be a catch, right?
This was my reaction when I heard about Robinhood, the app you can download for free and use to start trading stocks with no transaction fees. At the time, most of my retirement savings was in a 403(b) and a state pension. These accounts have limited options, mostly made up of index funds. I am not crazy about index fund investing for several reasons, which I will elaborate on at another time. I had finally opened a Roth IRA with an online broker to invest in individual stocks, but I was frustrated with the fee situation. I investigated Robinhood as an alternative, and here is what happened. Continue reading “Robinhood to the Rescue”