My latest article for Seeking Alpha forecasts Nike, Inc.’s earnings and determines its intrinsic value.
- Nike is a strong brand showing consistent revenue growth and excellent financial health.
- Nike’s revenue and earnings outlook for the next 5 years shows a continued ability to generate superior growth and dominate the industry.
- An estimated intrinsic value for shares of Nike based on best- and worst-case scenarios for the company, industry, and economy.
In analyzing stock valuations, people often use the price-to-earnings ratio as a shortcut. The problem is, it is just that a shortcut. It is the stock price divided by the trailing 12 months’ earnings per share. It is a simple measurement of past performance in a complex system that cannot be reduced to one number. P/E is a screening tool at best. It does not tell us enough about the most important factors of stock ownership: future earnings and cash flows.
Nike (NKE) has a P/E ratio of around 65, so investors are currently paying 65 times the last 12 months’ earnings per share to buy the stock. If the last 12 months’ earnings per share were to continue indefinitely, it would take 65 years to make your money back. So, initially, Nike looks extremely expensive. Thankfully, the appropriate price of a stock is based on a lot more than current EPS. Let’s conduct a more detailed assessment of Nike’s current earnings and project its future earnings to get a more accurate assessment of Nike’s intrinsic value. Continue reading…
In my latest article for Seeking Alpha, I look at how two companies handled industry disruption between 2000-2010 and analyze whether GameStop (GME) meets the profile of a survivor. This was a fun article to research, as Blockbuster was a comically mismanaged company, and one of its competitors, Family Video, remains a model for resilience to both disruption and recession.
David Abrams sums up Security Analysis the best in his introduction to Part VII of the 6th edition, where he calls it “the value investors’ equivalent to Deuteronomy” . SA is an extremely thorough explanation of how to evaluate stocks and bonds, primarily focusing on a company’s income statement and balance sheet. It is not an ideal starting point for young investors, but it is essential reading for any serious investor.
Graham and Dodd discuss the philosophy of value investing eloquently. They provide detailed analysis of dozens of companies’ finance statements to support their arguments about how investors should analyze securities. It is an excellent reality check for anyone who thinks he knows a thing or two about investing.
The examples given by Graham and Dodd are a bit dated (1930s), but most of the principles are still relevant today. The organization of the book is a bit awkward, but I don’t presume that I could organize such a massive quantity and variety of material any better.
It took me a long time to get through this, and I will probably explore many parts of it again over the next few years. It is a valuable addition to any business library and a resource that you can use for a lifetime of investing.